Sunday, January 25, 2009

Is China to blame?

The Obama Administration is putting the blame of the financial crisis on China: they don't stimulate their economy enough, but create a bubble with their surplus dollars by buying into US debts keeping the interest low. They keep their currency -the renminbi (yuan)- at an artificial low value against the dollar.

Although, it is unjust to blame the crisis on China, while the roots clearly lay in the US's corrupted bank system and business leadership. Enron and WorldCom before, and now Lehmann Brothers, CitiGroup, Madoff and virtually all (other) banks were involved in one or the other super-scam.

When bank presidents were not able anymore to read their own annual statements, it is clear that the basics for transparancy, healthy checks & balances, were completely missing. The scams were the biggest disappearance trick of foreign USD assets, temporarily reversing the trend of USD inflation. The other side of the medal is that trust in the US has eroded further. It is very likely that this will be the historical turningpoint in which the Euro replaces the dollar as the world's number one reserve currency. The Eurozone had already passed the US last year as the largest economy in the world, and the euro has proven to be a safe haven during the crisis. The 800 billion USD plus stimulus package that Obama is planning to launch, is likely to lead to increased inflatory pressures in the US, and a further weakened currency. At the other hand, also the Eurozone is in recession and is only expanding by taking in new members like Slovakia per January 2009.

If the transparancy in stock noted business is not enforced by tougher regulation, trust will not be re-established fast enough, and the recession will linger on, longer than we all want. Any economic relation is based on trust. So, it is trust, that needs to be repaired, not China.

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