The Virtual Crisis of 2009

The virtualization of mortgage derivatives into an incomprehensible trillion dollar market and the subsequent collapse into NOTHING... we can call it the Virtual Crisis of 2009. The Virtual Krach. As no one understood what it was all about, the media were copycatting each other by using the C word: CRISIS. Mortgage Crisis. Financial Crisis. Economic Crisis. A lot of what happens now has nothing tot do with the original financial crisis, but with perceptions, with fears and anticipations on fears.

Gradually, the fears are passing, and the first signs of a new Spring are visible. But also the first signs of a new world order. Who are the winners?
- The Euro is a clear winner
- China, India and a few other fast-growth economies kept their growth figures
- The Globalizing Internet Economy
- Green industries

Who are the loosers?
- The developed countries: Europe, North America, but also Russia
- The US dollar lost much of its credibility
- Western financial institutions
- US car industries

Is it bad that this happened? No, not at all. It is a big correction. Bubbles have burst. The US is creative and resilient enough to go through a new revival. The Eurozone continues its geographical expansion, and will stay the biggest economy for some time to come. The rise of China and India will force the European Union to think out-of-the-box. I foresee the inclusion of a democratizing Russia in some decades; a nation then tired of cleptocratic dicators. Also an expansion with Southern Mediterranean countries is not unlikely when the Islamic countries have gone through a stabilizing democratic development in which extremism and fundamentalism are coped with.